Feb. 1 at 11:25 AM
$FSLR I asked Grok:
“Tesla says they will have 100 GW of solar panels manufacturing online in 2029. How likely is this considering you would have to onshore to the US all elements required for solar panels including, silicon, ingots, wafers and everything else?”
Grok: Unlikely (20-30% odds).
Tesla’s current US production: ~300 MW/year at Gigafactory NY, ramping from late 2025, focused on residential panels. No detailed plans for full onshoring of polysilicon, ingots, wafers—US upstream capacity is nascent (polysilicon ~25 GW equiv, wafers/ingots ~2.5 GW, cells ~3 GW as of early 2026). Challenges: High US costs, limited expertise (mostly in China), 2-5 year factory build times, policy uncertainty (e.g., IRA changes under Trump), global oversupply depressing prices. Tesla solar history: Underperformed post-SolarCity (e.g., roof tiles scaled poorly). US total module capacity ~65 GW/year; scaling to 100 GW for one company requires unprecedented investment (~
$50-100B est.).
