Apr. 29 at 11:28 AM
$SPY $TOL $DHI $B $TLT
Unless the FED starts buying MBSās again at 3% rates, we will see home values continue lower.
Oversupply in multi family housing took place in 2025. As Iāve been saying for several years, 2026 will mark the oversupply in single family housing for this cycle.
Longer dated debt will remain high.
Mortgage rates above 6+% is normal.
Home values arenāt normal.
Fed rate back to 3%
10 year stays in the 4ās.
30 year could easily push 5+%
Nobody wants to hold the US debt for 3% long term.
Gold to
$10,000 by 2030.
TLT works its way back to
$110
Even as inflation remains persistently high, the FED canāt raise rates to fight it.
We canāt afford the interest on our debt now, much less if the FED raises rates.
If the FED went back to rate increases, it would slaughter real estate and more.
One word
Stagflation
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/28/housing-unit-growth-far-outruns-population-growth-vacant-units-on-the-market-and-the-accidental-landlords/
