Seagate Technology Hldgs Plc STX

The AI storage trade split Friday. $STX fell 10.2% as rival HDD capacity additions broke its scarcity narrative. $SNDK held up better on surging NAND earnings. Both are strong businesses, but $SNDK screens much cheaper. #AIStorage #Stocks

$STX $SNDK 👉 SNDK: More likely to stabilize or bounce than tank. 👉 STX: Higher volatility. More likely to bounce than crash again, but another large move in either direction is possible because the Toshiba news directly challenges the storage-shortage narratives. Watching $MU $NVDA

$STX $WDC Friday's verdict on the Toshiba headline: the market sold first, then the analysts defended. Seagate fell ~12% and Western Digital ~11%, the day's biggest large-cap losers. The trigger: Nikkei reported Toshiba will invest 60 billion yen to double its HDD capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027, targeting 30% capacity share vs roughly 11% now. The sell side pushed back. Morgan Stanley, Rosenblatt, and Citi all kept positive ratings: the supply-demand gap through 2028 still looks wider than Toshiba's planned addition. Rosenblatt's honest read: the real risk is the 2029-2031 contract book, not near-term pricing. Citi added the physical constraint: Toshiba does not make its own media and heads, so outside suppliers would have to ramp too. That caps how many exabytes reach the market. After Friday, STX is still up ~208% this year and WDC ~141%. Non-GAAP gross margins: 52.7% and 54.4%. The fight was about how long the scarcity premium lasts.

$STX $WDC Citi says buy Seagate, Western Digital on Friday's selloff STX WDC 9:43 AM Citi believes that even if Toshiba can double its hard disk drive capacity, the industry will remain undersupplied. The HDD industry is currently under-shipping unconstrained demand "by a wide margin," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi recommends buying shares of Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) on Friday's selloff around Toshiba's plans to double HDD capacity.

$STX $WDC Bernstein says Toshiba comments misunderstood, buy Seagate and Western Digital STX WDC 9:27 AM Bernstein believes Toshiba's comments yesterday to double hard disk drive capacity were misunderstood. Toshiba's press release actually said that it is aiming to nearly double production capacity by fiscal 2027, which ends March 2028, the analyst tells investors in a research note. If Toshiba doubles exabyte output while Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate (STX) each grow exabyte by 25%, in line with their long-term plans, the resulting Toshiba exabyte share would increase from 11.2% to 16.8%, says Bernstein. The firm adds, "Although significant, a 5.6% increase in market share isn't that alarming and nowhere near the 30% market share reported in the press today." As such, Bernstein views yesterday's news as a "storm in a teacup" and would look to buy shares of Seagate and Western Digital on the selloff. It reiterates Outperform ratings on both names.

🎯 Bullseye Analysis: Toshiba's impact on HDD and DRAM/HBM/NAND 🎯 A lot of people in the Bullseye trading room were asking yesterday about my thoughts on the Toshiba HDD deal and its implications for DRAM, NAND, and HBM companies short and long term, so I wanted to share a more detailed breakdown now that I've had time to review everything. The timeline of how this news broke is revealing. The headline hit around 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, yet $STX and $WDC did not move at all until roughly 6:00 AM Friday morning. That delayed reaction shows Mr. Market and the algos were digesting a mid-to-long-term capacity story rather than a sudden shift in near-term fundamentals. There is zero immediate impact to current revenue or earnings estimates, and both $STX and $WDC should keep beating and raising every quarter for the next few years. Looking at HDD mid-to-long term, Toshiba's $380 million commitment aims to double capacity and reach 30% market share by 2030, attempting to shift the HDD duopoly into a triopoly, which is how the DRAM and HBM industry operates today. While Toshiba makes great hardware with its nearline HDD designs, real market impact won't hit until the 2029 to 2030 timeframe given factory ramps, yield optimization, and lengthy hyperscaler qualifications. Until then, $STX and $WDC hold a massive lead in 40TB+ HAMR and ePMR volume, keeping pricing power firmly in their hands. Now on to $MU, $SNDK, and $SKHY. DRAM and NAND will be shielded from a similar surprise supply shock. Building a modern 3D NAND or DRAM fab requires over $10 billion, not a few hundred million. While Chinese production remains the biggest potential threat on paper, strict US export restrictions and lack of access to advanced lithography equipment prevent those companies from flooding Western enterprise channels with cutting-edge memory nodes. Final takeaway: While we could see short-term volatility across all of these names as the market digests capacity news, it's simply too early to say what the true long-term implications will be for $STX and $WDC as Toshiba attempts its multi-year ramp. However, we see DRAM and NAND as much more shielded. With foreign producers bottlenecked by equipment sanctions and major memory OEMs actively reallocating cleanroom space away from standard NAND into high-margin HBM and DDR5 for AI clusters, Enterprise SSD and DRAM supply will stay structurally tight. If you're not a Bullseye Private Alerts member yet, now is a great time to try us out. We just brought back our 7-day free trial and 50% off your first month. Link is in our profile. 🎯

$STX traders: there's an open securities case over alleged hidden Huawei sales that led to a $175M settlement. Claims by Oct 19, around $1.03 a share. Open Class Actions.

$WDC $STX $MU $SNDK $SKHY big topic here to with allt of people sharing there knowledge.. no 7 dayp trial. No charge . No one trying to suck out money .All for free. So why would someone join and pay?