Mar. 21 at 10:11 AM
$AVGO $ASML The AI chip showdown everyone's talking about after those March 19–20 pieces.
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Here's the problem: Both have insane long-term narratives. Both have short-term headaches.
$AVGO at
$310.51:
Bull case: Cantor Fitzgerald says AI revenue →
$100B+ by FY2027 . Tomahawk-6 shipping. Meta MTIA = locked-in hyperscaler demand.
Bear case: CFO sold
$11.7M worth on March 17 . Insiders dumped 528,970 shares over 90 days. Meta's training chip? "Delayed." CPO adoption? "Risky."
$ASML at
$1,317.25:
Bull case: EUV monopoly. The Motley Fool calls it a "foundational AI stock." If AI chips need advanced nodes, you need ASML. Period.
Bear case: PE at 49.3x — above its 10Y median of 35.8x . "Valuation compression" is the polite way of saying it's overpriced. Down 5% Friday on exactly that narrative.
You want safety? ASML — monopoly, sleep-well-at-night, but pay up for it.