Aug. 19 at 11:10 AM
$SPY $QQQ $TLT $DRAM $SOXX
The market is working through a genuine test this week, and the driver remains the one I have pointed to all year. Long yields near multi-decade highs, a global bond selloff, oil pushing back up on the Iran escalation, and now a reminder through OpenAI that the market wants proof the AI spending pays. Three down days in the S&P reflect that, and the heavy selling in Asia overnight shows how the bond move ripples everywhere.
None of it changes my longer term read, because the fundamentals underneath stay as strong as I have seen, and as one strategist put it well yesterday, the earnings and cash flows of the biggest companies are strong enough to power through this kind of scare. What it reinforces is the caution I have carried into the fall. The seasonal window is poor, sentiment leaves the market exposed, and the bond market has yet to show how it settles under Warsh. I stay constructive for the long term
https://dansheehan.beehiiv.com/p/a-divided-fed-s-minutes-land-in-a-nervous-market
