Jul. 2 at 8:22 PM
3Q26 DRAM Outlook: TrendForce f/casts a +13% to +18% q/q conventional DRAM price hike, perfectly matching GS ests (+16% for Samsung).
PC & Server Strength: PC DRAM expected up +15% to +20% q/q as OEMs aggressively build inventory. Server DRAM tracking up +13% to +18% q/q, fueled by a widening DDR5 premium (now +22% over DDR4)
Mobile DRAM Cooling: Expected up +8% to +13% QoQ. A noticeable cooldown from massive 2Q26 spikes of +73% to +85% as suppliers ease hikes to support consumer electronics supply chains
NAND Falling Short: TrendForce projects a +10% to +15% q/q increase—vs Goldman's f/ast of +21% est. While Enterprise SSDs hold strong (+18% to +23%), consumer NAND (eMMC/UFS) is soft at +5% to +10%
Spot vs Contract: Spot market continues to lead. DDR5 16Gb spot carries a +17% premium over contract, while older DDR4 8Gb spot sits at a steep +38% premium
The underlying concern is that overall DRAM supply in 2027 may be tight. For downstream manufacturers, buying less now could lead to higher prices or difficulty securing supply later. The price increase itself has not immediately suppressed purchasing; instead, it has strengthened demand for early procurement
"The current strength in traditional DRAM spot prices could be factored into discussions when negotiating next year's HBM pricing." Given persistently tight HBM supply and demand, coupled w/ a widening price gap b/n traditional DRAM & HBM, Goldman sees room for further upward revisions to price forecasts
Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy Rating on Samsung Electronics, w/ a TP of KRW 480,000 - Samsung's DRAM average selling price (ASP) will rise +46% q/q in the 2Q26, but the "2nd derivative" of price increases stands at roughly -48 percentage points (rate of increase slowing but still up)
$DRAM $EWY $MU $SNDK $TSM