Mar. 21 at 4:34 PM
$NVAX Reasonable scenario, and if happens, hardly a bad ending for (most) longs. But may I add another, even more positive, one? In the next 3-5 months, at least another, if not multiple BPs announce deals with Novavax. They may be in the form of a similar Matrix-M deal that
$PFE struck and/or a deal for our CIC or stand alone flu. At which point, we have multiple, long-term, and significant deals with multiple large BPs. All of which have big billion+ $ markets. At this point, it's clear the growing value of
$NVAX assets. But because a BO from any of the potential players, including Sanofi, now means the buyer has to honor--and participate--in their competitor's growth due to existing contracts, it makes a buyout extremely tricky, if not impossible. Over time, royalties and milestone payments help
$NVAX grow into a high profit and cash generating machine with a PE in the 40-50 range. With revenues at just
$1 billion, that's likely
$4/share in earnings and a
$160-
$200 stock.
