Jul. 2 at 11:48 PM
$CSIQ The bull case is NOT “CSIQ is the best solar company.”
It’s that the market may be valuing the US manufacturing pivot at close to zero.
US roadmap:
10GW modules by 2H26
6.3GW cells by early 2027 ramp
45X math:
10B watts modules x
$0.07 =
$700M/yr
6.3B watts cells x
$0.04 =
$252M/yr
Gross 45X opportunity = ~
$952M/yr.
Current mkt cap is only about ~
$1B. That is the setup.
Even with big haircuts:
35% net capture = ~
$333M = ~
$5.00/sh
50% net capture = ~
$476M = ~
$7.20/sh
65% net capture = ~
$619M = ~
$9.35/sh
Put just 6x on the 50–65% case and you get ~
$43–56/sh before giving much credit to e-STORAGE, Recurrent, or the base module business.
Risks are real: eligibility, ramp, ASPs, debt, politics. But if 45X starts flowing through around YE26/Q1 27, this can re-rate fast.
