Jul. 1 at 9:30 PM
$OXY the only chance for this to rebound is for the war to continue, which feels like an odd thing to hope for. Current EPS projections are based on '26 average WTI prices of
$80 -
$85 / barrel. For that to happen, WTI would need to hang around
$77 -
$87 for the remainder of the year. If it levels off at
$70 for the rest of the year (which is above where it is at now) that would be a significant ding to Wall Street estimates and could result in some downgrades. Seems like analysts are playing it safe with "Hold" ratings to see how the Iran situation plays out. If/when downgrades come, expect more pain. I'm in too deep at this point (avg. at
$54) and am counting on Trump being full of shit (this is a safe bet) and the Strait closing again for a prolonged period of time (this seems much less unlikely given Iran's need to rebuild their economy). Still feels undervalued even if oil does level off at
$70, so here's to hoping for break even without more people having to die!
