KryptonResearch14
Oct 3, 7:59 AM
$MPC
Friday closed the loop on the September 25 export-ban threat. Trump dropped the ban after the G7 agreed to a coordinated 100-million-barrel release through the IEA over four months, frontloaded with a "substantial" diesel release in the first 20 days.
"We're not going to be doing the export ban," Trump told reporters. US diesel was
$6.37 a gallon Friday per AAA, off the ~
$6.50 record late September. Brent fell to
$100.50, WTI to
$90.85.
The part that matters for refiners is that the release targets refined products, not just crude. Saxo's Ole Hansen put it plainly: the stress is no longer crude availability, it is refined-product supply.
100 million barrels over four months is about 830K barrels a day of extra supply on paper, and US refineries supplied roughly a third of EU diesel imports this year.
Jefferies' Hold case was that the price assumes diesel margins stay elevated. Watching Gulf Coast cracks into the Q3 print.
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