Aug. 12 at 1:23 PM
$PSX A 60.3% YTD run in a refiner is a statement, but the model just cut its conviction score from 35 to 25 while the tape is at its most extended. The refining margin narrative has been fully absorbed: PSX is already reads as fully priced in, and a score falling this sharply at the highs is the model saying the cascade thesis has done its work. The invalidation is if Brent pushes materially above
$89.58 on fresh Hormuz escalation and re-opens the margin story, but right now the score and the price are pointing in opposite directions.
