Mar. 17 at 3:39 PM
Most of crude tankers passing thru the Hormuz remain of Iranian origin (10-12 tankers en route to China & Syria) & so far 8-10 non-Iranian tankers breaking thru the IRGC’s blockade (5+ en route to India & 2 to Pakistan, 1-2 to China & 1 to Turkey)
There are only 2 bypassing routes from Gulf countries that avoid the Strait of Hormuz, namely Saudi Arabia’s 5Mbpd East-West pipeline (currently being tested for "incremental surge capacity" of up to 7Mbpd) & the UAE’s 1.5Mbpd Habshan-Fujairah conduit
Daily exports of crude and products from the Arab Gulf have plunged by 61% since the US-Iran war started, w/ the previous flow of more than 25.13Mbpd shrinking to just 9.71Mbpd in the week ending March 15
US last week issued a waiver allowing purchases by April 11 of Russian crude already loaded on tankers - China, India, Thailand, Japan
Ural were
$40-
$44/bbl (
$31-
$34 discount to Brent) pre-war & now....
$98.93/bbl (just
$4.80 discount to Brent)
$USO $XLE $FXI $INDA -
$SPY