Apr. 29 at 9:10 PM
$AR just dropped Q1 2026 and nobody's paying attention yet.
EPS:
$1.72 vs
$1.22 consensus. 41% beat.
Revenue:
$1.95B, up 44% YoY.
Record production: 3.9 Bcfe/d, up 13% YoY.
Adjusted FCF:
$657M in a single quarter.
EBITDAX:
$723M, up 32%.
And the forward setup is even better:
Q2 production steps up to 4.1 Bcfe/d (full HG quarter)
Cash costs guided DOWN
$0.10/Mcfe
Ethane premium guidance RAISED to
$2-3/bbl
CEO on the call explicitly saying geopolitical disruption benefits their NGL/LNG export positioning
The "bear case" is higher opex and net debt. Both are from the HG acquisition that just added 385,000 acres and 400 drilling locations. At
$657M/quarter FCF they can pay down that debt in a year.
Trailing P/E shows 19x. Run-rate forward P/E is closer to 6x. The market hasn't updated its models yet.
Conference call tomorrow 9am MT. That's when the sell-side notes drop and this reprices.
Volume today was below average on a 41% earnings beat. Nobody's here yet. Bullish.
$AR
