Ro_Patel
Oct 1, 1:15 AM
Remember when US Treasury Sec Bessent made the “I am the house now… bet against me if you want” comments on Sept 8, framing his interventions (yen support + stepped-up Treasury buybacks) as having an information edge.
The market did just that & bet against him - in the 3 weeks since:
• Long-term yields moved sharply higher (roughly +35–40 bps on the 20- and 30-year)
• TLT sunk -5.9% (from
$82.20 to the mid-
$77’s)
And the irony is hard to miss…..
Bessent’s own hedge fund track record already foreshadowed this dynamic. Key Square’s AUM collapsed from a ~
$5.1B peak in 2017 to just ~
$577M by end‑2023 — a nearly -90% drawdown. Institutional investors fled b/c the performance was inconsistent & the edge he claimed didn’t materialize. His prior venture, Bessent Capital (circa 2000–2005), met a similar fate, shuttered after similarly mixed results
As former President GWB Jr said: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again
$SHY $GLD.X
$IBIT $AGG $TLT
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