1-3 Year Treasury Bond Ishares ETF (SHY)

$SPY $UVXY $TLT $GLD $SHY sounds very bullish. Thanks for sharing

BCA Research is warning that the window for avoiding a recession is narrowing fast. 7 factors that have buffered the global economy so far, while cautioning that "the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June" The first buffer is simply timing. Oil shocks historically have a lagged impact, w/ maximum damage to GDP growth arriving roughly 4 quarters after the initial shock. Second, the global economy uses substantially less oil per unit of GDP than in past decades, though cautioned that this is offset by greater supply chain interdependence. Third, long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, limiting the pressure on central banks to hike aggressively. Fourth, fiscal policy is providing some offset, w/ provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act kicking in alongside US Treasury tariff refunds. Fifth, companies have engaged in precautionary buying, echoing pandemic-era behavior. Sixth, the AI boom has been a critical growth engine, w/ investment in IT hardware & software hitting a record 4.9% of GDP in 1Q26. Seventh, oil markets remain in deep backwardation, signaling that investors expect the shock to be temporary. BCA Research said it is currently neutral on global equities, but warned it "will adopt a more defensive posture" if the oil shock drags on. $SPY $UVXY $TLT $GLD $SHY

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000 for the week ended May 2 vs est of 205,000 claims - the increase partially unwound the prior week's decline, which had pushed claims to a level last seen in 1969 Government data shows there were 0.95 job openings for every unemployed person in March vs 0.91 in Feb, consistent w/ a stable labor market Employers have so far this year announced 300,749 job cuts, down 50% from the same period in 2025. Technology companies have accounted for the bulk of the layoffs, w/ AI often cited as the reason. Economists speculate that laid-off tech workers are most likely receiving generous severance packages The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 10,000 to a s/adj'd 1.766M during the week ended April 25, the lowest level since January 2024 Employment report for April is due to be released on Friday. Consensus est that nonfarm payrolls will have likely increased by 62,000 jobs last month - Ests for the so-called break-even rate are ~50,000 jobs/month Unemployment rate is f/cast to have been unchanged at 4.3% in April, w/ a possibility of being rounded down to 4.2% $TLT $SHY $GLD $XLY $SPY

$GLD $SHY $SPY $TLT $UUP This reads somewhat scary until you realize it’s a bit backwards. Bills don’t “suppress” long rates they park money at the front end. When those roll off (and yields fall), that cash has to go somewhere… usually out the curve. “$10T maturing” isn’t a crisis, it’s normal refinancing that has occurred almoast perpetually. The irony is that this setup builds a future demand wave for duration, not a collapse and most will miss it. They’ll bail on bonds right when long end yields finally start to sink.

US Treasury to maintain its current debt issuance strategy, freezing the auction sizes for medium- & long-term Treasuries for the next several quarters Next week, it will conduct a $125B refunding operation to raise approximately $41.6B in new cash. Heavy reliance on T-bills (maturities of one year or less) is intended to suppress long-term interest rates, which affect everything from mortgages to corporate loans This move extends the policy of relying on short-term Treasury bills to meet financing needs, prompting warnings from the IMF about debt costs becoming susceptible to interest rate shocks. Treasury has raised its borrowing ests for the current quarter to $189B, primarily due to lower-than-expected net cash inflows. Officials also f/cast that the cash balance in the Treasury General Account (TGA) could peak at $1T by the end of July. While Treasury Sec Bessent did not overturn the roadmap set by his predecessor Janet Yellen, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) has hinted that expanding long-term debt issuance may be necessary in the new fiscal year. Although the Federal Reserve's T-bill purchases & regulatory easing provide short-term support, markets are already pricing in expectations for future expansion in long-term bond supply, w/ structural risks from the rising share of short-term debt gradually becoming a concern. The ability to sustain the short-term debt strategy is partly due to significant demand-side support - the Federal Reserve has been ramping up its purchases of Treasury bills since last Dec to ensure ample reserves in the banking system. The Fed is currently also reinvesting proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into Treasury bills While it keeps the 10-year yield lower in the immediate term, it creates a massive refunding task; approximately $10T (1/3rd of all US debt) is set to mature in 2026 alone The snowball of short-term debt grows larger, this stalling tactic could backfire & amplify the risks of US debt rollovers if the Federal Reserve's buying momentum weakens or market interest rates fluctuate unexpectedly. $SHY $TLT $UUP $GLD $SPY

Your moment of zen... The Justice Dept asked a federal judge to vacate his ruling in the Jerome Powell case, a move that could prevent the decision from being cited as precedent in future investigations. The motion comes 10 days after prosecutors announced the closure of the criminal inquiry into the Federal Reserve chair US District Judge James Boasberg quashed the Justice Dept's subpoenas in March, ruling prosecutors had issued them not to gather evidence but to "harass & pressure" Powell US Attorney Jeanine Pirro asked Boasberg to vacate his ruling under a 1950 Supreme Court precedent known as the Munsingwear doctrine, which allows judges to set aside rulings in cases that have become moot, or irrelevant --- By seeking to vacate the ruling, the Trump admin isn't just closing a case; they are trying to erase a legal shield. Wiping the Judge’s decision from the books ensures that future attempts to weaponize subpoenas as a 'harassment' tool won't be blocked by this specific precedent, effectively clearing the path to use the Justice Dept for their own political leverage & not the good of the country $SHY $GLD $TLT $UUP - $SPY

$SHY Current Stock Price: $82.39 Contracts to trade: $82.0 SHY May 15 2026 Call Entry: $0.35 Exit: $0.67 ROI: 90% Hold ~23 days Shared as daily free alerts and for educational purposes only. https://dailypickai.com/freealerts

BoA on the FOMC: The Fed will remain firmly on hold at its April meeting. The inflation outlook is arguably as cloudy as it was at the time of the March meeting. The big question around the FOMC statement is whether it will indicate that risks to the policy path are two-sided...it’s a close call, but we think the majority of the committee would prefer to leave the forward guidance language unchanged. Given the downward revisions to 4Q GDP and soft consumer spending in Jan-Feb, we think the Fed will choose to downgrade the description of economic activity from “solid” to “moderate” In what could be his last press conference, we think Chair Powell will sound hawkish... there is no reason to push back against market pricing of a flat policy path when uncertainty is so elevated. If the labor data deteriorate later this year, the Fed can easily make a dovish pivot, just as it did in 2024 and 2025. $SPY $UVXY $SHY $TLT $GLD

3/6: Sen. Tillis ends blockade of Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination after DOJ closes Powell probe; Senate Banking Committee vote set for Wednesday ahead of May 15 chair transition $TLT $IEF $SHY $DXY $SPY

4/5: Treasury Sec. Bessent says multiple Gulf allies (incl. UAE under discussion) requested U.S. dollar swap lines to stabilize dollar funding and avoid disorderly U.S.-asset sales amid Iran-war stress | View: Policy support is still under discussion, with no swap-line terms disclosed… $UUP $TLT $IEF $SHY