Mar. 19 at 4:24 PM
$YRD The reason I am willing to stick my nose out a little at 2.08 and lower is I do not believe they are going to have massive losses but the overall microlending business in China is going to suffer huge. They have a
$55 million crypto position now
$20 million underwater. However, the loan loss provision causing the loss are temporary and same thing caused LU to look very bad. According to my math the market cap. is now ~180 million and they have ~1.92 billion in assets and
$598 million in liabilities (~1.32 billion net) or ~
$17 per share in tangible assets. This compares to
$9 per share at their 2022 lows. They are likely going to take several financial hits but that is a fairly decent buffer. So they are at ~12% of asset value compared to ~18% for LU and 45% for QFIN. Wild times in the lending world indeed. My LU position is 15 times larger than YRD. See how low we go.
