Jul. 24 at 9:02 AM
$JFIN is a mess.
Cash: 880M RMB (Q4'23) → 43M (Q1'26). Revenue -57% YoY. Originations -46%. Guidance is a mess. Went full gas mid 2025, worst period possible. originations +54.6% YoY Q2. Payback time..
But the delinquencies. Q2'25, 90+ DQ at 1.12%. LX 3.1%. QFIN 3.5%. Same borrowers lol. A THIRD of peers while growing way faster? No provisions reported in their reports.. Make it make sense.
CRO resigns. New CRO starts June 1. Quits July 20. 50 days lol. New director starts July 1. Quits July 20. 20 days. What did they see that made them bounce before their first paycheck? What is the Head Risk role? exactly..
Can't do asset light, falling off banks' white lists. Can't do asset heavy, 43M cash. Can't grow, can't fund, can't keep anyone.
Ugly for the sector short term, this is my biggest fear. Long term this is just consolidation speeding up. 3-4 compliant players left standing. This applies to all these
$LX,
$LU $QFIN
@JohnTill
