Aug. 18 at 2:40 PM
$TMDX
Btw I am in the base to Bull case on this one
$TMDX Valuation Case:
Bear Case (
$55–
$65): Aviation fleet capex and logistics scaling permanently compress EBIT margins below 10%, while regulatory audit frictions/NORS competition cap organ volume market share, compressing the EV/S multiple down to ~3.5x.
Base Case (
$110–
$125): Core OCS perfusion adoption drives 20%+ top-line CAGR (
$750M+ FY26 guidance) with logistics network optimization stabilizing gross margins near 60%, maintaining a dominant category monopoly and supporting a ~6x EV/S re-rating.
Bull Case (
$160–
$180+): Full operational leverage takes hold as international expansion, next-gen kidney perfusion platforms, and warm-ischemia market expansion push gross margins toward 65%+ and net margins to 20%, unlocking
$1.2B+ revenue run-rate and
$150M+ FCF by 2028.
Asymmetric risk profile heavily skewed to the upside