Jan. 30 at 1:52 PM
Closed my
$NWG position today after a 42% gain. Nothing “broke” with the bank and execution has actually been strong. Returns improved, margins expanded, and the restructuring story played out. The problem is that price caught up to value.
My fair value is around
$19 and the stock is already near that zone. That leaves limited upside vs downside if credit costs normalize or margins compress as hedges roll off. Risk/reward went from asymmetric to “meh.”
I try to stay ruthless with capital allocation. When upside shrinks, I rotate. No hero trades, no attachment.
https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/why-im-closing-my-position-in-natwest-nwg
