Jun. 30 at 11:07 PM
$MOS Catalyst Checklist:
1) Q2 earnings / guidance reset — can MOS show that Q1 was the trough?
2) Sulfur price relief — biggest margin lever for the phosphate business.
3) Phosphate import-duty fallout — if Moroccan supply pressures U.S. prices, that is a headwind.
4) Potash stability — the potash segment is the healthier part of the business right now.
5) Brazil asset actions — MOS is reviewing strategic alternatives for Araxa and Patrocinio, including a potential sale of Araxa and niobium opportunities at Patrocinio.
The real investable catalyst is what MOS says on the next earnings call about phosphate curtailments, sulfur costs, and whether the company can restore confidence in 2026 EBITDA. Q2 phosphate sales volumes are expected at 1.4–1.7 M tonnes, with DAP prices of
$760–
$780/tonne, while potash volumes are expected at 1.9–2.1 M tonnes with MOP prices of
$260–
$280/tonne. I'm optimistic for a good August '26 update, but the real turnaround is expected for late '26 to early '27.
