Jun. 24 at 6:36 PM
Gold falls below
$4,000/oz on strong USD & hawkish Fed signals
Note: Gold becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates rise b/c it offers no yield
Seeing perfect storm - market is pricing a -25bps rate hike as soon as Sept & an 84% probability of another hike in Dec due to a hawkish Fed, which pushed the USD Index to a 13-month high. Combined w/ lower inflation expectations & softer ETF inflows, heavy pressure is hitting precious metals
Spot gold has now shed over
$1,600/oz—plunging roughly -29.82% from its record peak of
$5,594.82 set on Jan 28, 2026
- ING cuts gold f/cast for 3Q26 from
$4,850 to
$4,300 & for 4Q26 from
$5,000 to
$4,600
- Goldman cut its YE26 f/cast by
$500 to
$4,900
- DB cut its 3Q26 f/cast o
$4,300 & its 4Q26 TP to
$4,800
- Citi downgraded its near-term target to
$4,000
--- But... w/ falling oil prices (Brent returning to pre-Iran war lows) & w/ inflation expectations moderating then IMHO the Fed will not raise rates—a view shared by ING economists who expect the Fed to remain on hold. However, elevated 10-yr Treasury yields, a strong USD, & a technically broken support zone (
$4,400–
$4,600) remain powerful near-term headwind
Further, central bank demand will be constructive as reserve diversification continues—official institutions hoovered up 244 tonnes in 1Q26 alone, w/ China extending its buying streak to 19 consecutive months & Poland targeting a reserve increase from 20% to 30%. W/ oil prices falling, current account deficits will fall in Emerging Markets, preserving cash & enabling sustained official sector bullion accumulation
$GLD $GDX $AEM $KGC $NEM