Aug. 9 at 4:25 PM
I’m seeing a lot of bearish sentiment around memory this weekend.
But for long-term investors, the fundamentals haven’t really changed.
MSFT META AMZN and GOOG all reinforced that AI CAPEX isn’t slowing, while cloud growth remains strong.
Much of the bearish narrative now feels like people trying to explain the selloff after the fact.
Nvidia reducing memory allocation for Rubin Ultra isn’t bearish. It reflects how severe the memory shortage has become.
$SNDK’s flat QoQ gross-margin guidance also doesn’t prove a cycle peak. Kioxia saw NAND ASPs rise 65–70% QoQ, while SanDisk chose a different strategy: prioritize LTAs and more durable earnings over maximizing short-term margins.
To me, memory sold off because sentiment changed and leverage was wiped out — not because demand suddenly disappeared.
Unless the thesis breaks or fundamentals materially deteriorate, I remain long
$SKHY $MU $SNDK and
$KXIAY.
Price weakness is not the same thing as demand weakness.
No guts, no glory.
