Mar. 20 at 1:28 PM
$RCL $CCL $NCLH As usual no one is paying attention. RCL is 60% hedged on fuel for 2026 and says a 10% change in fuel price hits earnings 57m. Multiply by 5 for 50% and maybe RCLs earnings get hit by
$1 EPS this year. Basically nothing out of
$18 FC earnings
$CCL says in its release a 10% change hits earnings 145m multiply by
$5 and that is
$750M! or 55 cents out of a
$2.48 FC. That is a lot more.
NCLH (crappy company and not comparable to the others) is also hedged but says a 10% change affects EPS by 7 cents so 35 cents out of
$2.38. NCLH should also be down on the news as its financial position is poor at 5.3X leverage.
Does the market know this? No? Let's see let's drop CCL 22% on a 1/5 earnings hit. Let's drop RCL 14% on a 5% earnings hit and let's drop NCLH only
$19% on a more than 10% hit when its financial position is more risky.
