Aug. 18 at 12:55 PM
$LPTH The chart highlights the severity of the ex-China germanium supply shortage. Although announced projects could increase non-Chinese refining capacity from just 31 tonnes in 2026 to 126 tonnes by 2030, the estimated deficit versus total ex-China demand would still be around 115 tonnes—meaning only about 48% of demand would be covered. S&P Global therefore estimates that a long-term structural price of approximately
$2,100–
$2,300 per kilogram may be required to justify the necessary investment in new refining capacity. In short, the chart shows that germanium is not merely experiencing a temporary shortage; without major additional investment, the Western supply chain is likely to remain structurally undersupplied and highly exposed to China.
