May. 1 at 1:47 AM
$KALV 's
$1.9B M&A enterprise value = 0.93X 5-year analyst consensus & 0.34X 10-year consensus. This appears right down the middle v. peer comm'l-stage M&A exits. The attached table calculates KALV's multiples using analyst consensus where the 11 peers use revenue forecasts prepared by the acquiree's mgnt/BOD.
$SNDX has a new analyst providing revenue forecasts, which are now meaningfully higher than last week. SNDX's forecasts are now so high we don't believe they are credible but WTF do we know. We'll wait until analysts swallow today's update before reposting SNDX multiples. All the same, at
$20/share SNDX's risk v reward profile is now quite compelling if analyst estimates are credible.
SNDX
$58MM in Q126 R&D or
$200MM+/year? Let's hope there's a return
SNDX 5-year consensus FY26-30 now =
$3.94B per Seeking Alpha. Put a 0.90 or a 1.0X like KALV? Higher/lower?
$ACAD $TARS $ARDX trade @ multiples meaningfully lower than peers (again if analyst estimates are credible).
Much more to come.
