May. 10 at 3:59 PM
$ACAD enterprise value is 0.40X 5-year analyst consensus revenue estimates.
The attachment notes the actual 5-year M&A multiples paid in 11 commercial-stage exits. These 11 peers, all projected to do over
$750MM in sales in the year following acquisition just like ACAD, were acquired for 0.86 to 1.25X 5-year revenue forecasts (some even higher).
Because ACAD's multiples reflect enterprise value, the relationship to market cap is not linear as ACAD's 3/31/26 cash is
$859MM
The 2nd attachment shows ACAD's fully diluted market cap & enterprise value at
$22.40 per share & a hypothetical
$46.40 M&A share price if ACAD was acquired for 1.0X 5-year sales, EXCLUDING FY26 GRANTS.
We'd remind investors that
$APLS closed at
$17.07 per share the day before Biogen announced the acquisition for
$41
This is not investment advice. The attachments are simple "what-ifs." We have no idea what ACAD might be worth in a M&A exit.
