May. 13 at 10:07 AM
$ASRT So your thesis is plausible in market-structure terms:
$18 “teaser” → weak holders sell →
$21.80 revised offer → more holders sell above offer → possible final bump if tender resistance or rival pressure remains.
However, I would not assume
$30 is the planned number. A move to
$30 would be a very large jump from
$21.80 — about 37.6% higher — and would likely require either a real competing bidder, a failed/weak tender response, or the 14D-9 showing valuation/process facts that make
$21.80 indefensible. The current agreement still says
$21.80 and remains subject to a majority of outstanding shares being tendered.
My best read: yes, the shareholder base may have been deliberately or naturally reshaped by the low offer and then the bump. But if ASRT is still holding around
$22.50 before the 14D-9, that suggests the reshaping has not fully solved Garda’s problem. Buyers at
$22-plus are not buying to accept
$21.80; they are buying because they think there is still optionality.
