Dec. 8 at 2:23 PM
$YPF is entering a multi-year export growth phase driven by rising shale output, new pipelines, and LNG partnerships. In 2025 shale oil rose 35% YoY, reaching ~70% of production, with guidance of ~215k bpd and a path to ~290k bpd by 2027. The
$2.5B Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, under construction since early 2025, will lift crude exports and support Argentina’s projected
$15–20B/yr oil revenue by 2027+. YPF, ENI and ADNOC/XRG target mid-2026 FID for a large LNG project aiming for 30 mtpa and first exports by 2030. In June 2025 YPF and partners signed a long-term ENAP supply deal valued near
$12B through 2033. Despite
$4.6B Q3 2025 revenue and ~
$1.4B EBITDA, YPF trades at 3.5–4.5× EBITDA, far below peers. With Milei’s reforms, improving sovereign risk, and rising export capacity, YPF remains materially undervalued with a favorable 2025–2026 risk-reward profile
