Mar. 20 at 4:02 PM
$URG Takeaway: URG’s insider buying stands out sharply against peers who are trimming or exercising. UUUU and DNN trade at premiums but face more execution risk or higher costs. URG looks cheapest on a production + growth basis.
Simple Valuation Math
Using the March 10 Lost Creek NI 43-101 update + latest balance sheet:
Lost Creek after-tax NPV₈% =
$244.1 million
Shares outstanding = 397.33 million
NPV per share = \( \frac{244.1 \times 10^6}{397.33 \times 10^6} \approx \
$0.614 \)
Add:
Net cash (mrq cash
$123.86M – debt
$84.86M) ≈ +
$0.10/share
Shirley Basin (1M+ lbs/yr licensed, low-cost ISR ramp imminent) + inventory + exploration upside: conservatively another
$0.50–
$1.00+/share in NPV (analyst models)
Implied NAV range: ~
$1.20–
$2.10+/share today.
Current price ~
$1.41 trades at a discount to just the core asset + cash, with analyst targets
$2.19–
$2.50 (55–78% upside). Book value
$0.20/share is irrelevant—real value is in the discounted cash flows from production.
