May. 7 at 3:55 PM
$TVTX My math suggests
$3.9 billion peak sales. IgAN at 990 PSFs per quarter is 1.5% of 70,000 population. Thats 6% per year. Assume this peaks at 1/3rd of population, who remain on Filspari in perpetuity, assuming a
$90K net revenue (payer discount and royalties owed), that’s
$2.1 billion in annual sales. Assuming FSGS can also get to 1/3rd of 30,000 population, at a
$180K net revenue, that’s another
$1.8 billion.
$3.9 billion combined, without expanding TAM population (which TVTX intends to do). Fair valuation conservatively at 2x sales, that’s
$7.8 billion market cap, or
$81 / share.
