Mar. 18 at 6:54 PM
$SPY $USO $CL_F $SU $XOM There is a historic divergence in oil prices across regions:
Oman crude prices are up to ~
$154/barrel, crossing
$150 for the first time ever.
At the same time, Dubai crude is up to ~
$130/barrel, while Brent is trading at ~
$102 and WTI at ~
$93.
In other words, the gap between Oman and US prices now stands at ~65%, or ~
$61 per barrel.
By comparison, before the Iran War, the difference between all benchmarks was just
$5 in January and February.
Brent and WTI are priced based on US and European supply conditions, while the actual disruption is concentrated in the Middle East, meaning they do not fully capture the severity of the physical shortage YET.
If the Strait does not reopen, this divergence will narrow, as Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice higher once US and European oil reserves are depleted.
The global oil market cannot sustain prolonged Middle East disruption.
