Aug. 18 at 12:46 PM
$ROLR - Industry Scorecard:
Prediction market notional volume reached an estimated
$58BN in July, up 10% MoM, according to Stifel. US CFTC-regulated exchanges generated about
$49BN, rising 21% and accounting for more than 80% of tracked activity, while global on-chain volume fell 23% to approximately
$10BN. Estimated taker-only CFTC volume was
$14BN, exceeding July’s regulated OSB handle of
$11.3BN, although position exits inflate the comparison
Kalshi strengthened its dominant share to 84%, against Polymarket US at 10% and Rothera at 4%. DraftKings’ DKeX contributed just
$13M, while ProphetX doubled to
$131M and the newly-launched Underdog exchange handled
$10M
Sports remained the engine: Kalshi’s sports and “combo” markets represented around 80% of activity. Parlays have scaled rapidly, although notional accounting overstates their handle equivalent contribution
Crypto, meanwhile, comprised 16% of total volume, up from 12% in June, helped by growing perpetual futures activity
