Aug. 18 at 4:30 PM
$PACS we remain ~20% undervalued vs. ENSG as of today, and ~30% off ENSG's pre short report price of approx
$215 (see below valuation side by side).
I think you can reasonably say
$50 -
$55 is near-term fair value, and that
$55 -
$60 is absolutely achievable over the next couple of quarters... especially if current estimates prove to be conservative (which they almost definitionally will based on what we know) and they have solid guidance for 2027.
Beyond
$60 in the next 6 months gets a little more hazy. A lot likely depends on what happens with ENSG... if ENSG trades up from here that gives PACS more room to run without closing the current valuation gap. If ENSG is flat, we have to assume the market is willing to close the valuation gap further, or perhaps value PACS at a higher multiple than ENSG. Not impossible, but I would not underwrite that as a base case given ENSG's strong operating profile, slightly cleaner balance sheet, dividend, and lack of gov't investigation.
