Jun. 23 at 7:54 PM
$OLLI is trading at ~18 Trailing PE; TJ Maxx, Ross, and Burlington all trade in the 32-34 range. 80% higher than Ollie. The dollar stores are trading in the 16-18 range. Five Below is getting beat up lately, but still in the 23-24 range (30% higher).
The primary thing holding Ollies back right now is same-stores comped +1.7% last quarter instead of ~2 and the reasoning was that a cooler spring has dramatically suppressed the start of the spring-summer buying season. This story-line started to flip half-way through May and June has been even better. In the last 7 days, the temperatures have been 5-10% higher than normal in ALL of Ollies markets and much of the same is forecasted for the rest of the summer.
The last 6 weeks of Q2 should be VERY strong. Lower gas prices and warmer weather.
Anyone saying that Ollies is destined for the same fate as Big Lots, Tuesday Morning, and 99 Cents Only is delusional. The company has a rock-solid balance sheet and a huge market where they are king.
