Mar. 18 at 6:42 PM
$NEUP Going to be crickets here until news drops. Good news is that they had over a 'dozen competing indications of interest' in early Dec . We are now 3.5 months from that point so one has to believe a resolution occurs in the next 2 weeks (i.e. by end of Q1).
Outcomes by likelihood:
1). RM w/ CVRs for existing assets --> -30% downside risk (low likelihood) for 100%+ potential upside (
$3/share -
$10/share)
2). Asset sales w/ special dividend and then RM the remaining shell. --> 100 - 200%+ upside (
$10+/share)
3). Straight buyout --> 200%+ upside (likely in
$12-
$15/share range)
4). No deal reached, continue business as usual and collect milestone payments from Merck deal (low likelihood)