Aug. 11 at 1:25 PM
$MITT My price-target framework
$CHMI
I’d divide it into three scenario:
🔴 Bear case:
$5.50–
$6.50
The market continues assigning MITT ~0.60–0.70× book.
This could happen if:
* Book value gets hit by mortgage-market volatility
* EAD remains around
$0.24
* Investors don’t believe the synergy story
* MITT remains heavily discounted relative to book
At today’s
$6.32, we are fairly close to this scenario.
🟡 Base case:
$7.50–
$8.75
The merger closes successfully, book value stabilizes around
$9.50+, and EAD rises toward
$0.27–
$0.30.
MITT trades around 0.80–0.90× book.
This is my most reasonable 12–18 month range right now.
🟢 Bull case:
$9.00–
$10.50+
The combined company demonstrates meaningful EAD accretion, MSR earnings perform well, synergies materialize, and the market begins valuing MITT closer to book.
At 0.95–1.10× a ~
$9.55 book value:
$9.07–
$10.51
That’s a very different valuation from today’s
$6.32.
