Jan. 29 at 10:22 AM
$ALT Great write up on Reddit !
We are talking about Altimmune (
$ALT).
If you’ve been watching the GLP-1 space (Lilly, Novo), you know the "fat loss" trade is crowded. But
$ALT just pivoted to the holy grail: MASH (liver disease) + Weight Loss. And the setup right now is looking like a powder keg waiting for a match.
The market punished this thing last year because they wanted "just another weight loss drug."
$ALT gave them something better: Pemvidutide.
• BTD CONFIRMED: As of Jan 5, 2026, the FDA granted them Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) for MASH. This is huge. It means the FDA sees "substantial improvement" over existing therapies. This is also means chances of approval are now over 75%, FDA wants this drug.
LET ME SAY THIS IN CAPS - BTD IS A HUGE FUCKING DEAL, only around 1/3 of applications gets accepted, and it tells big Pharma, FDA wants this drug, come fucking buy.
• The Kicker: Unlike Madrigal’s drug (Rezdiffra) which just treats the liver,
$ALT’s drug shreds fat too. Patients hit 7.5% weight loss at 48 weeks on the high dose, and the chart showed no plateau (meaning they were still losing weight). It’s a two-for-one special: Fix the liver, lose the gut.
2. The "For Sale" Sign is Blinking!!!
This is the most bullish part. Look at the C-Suite changes. They aren't building a 20-year dynasty; they are dressing the bride for a wedding.
• New CEO (Jan 2026): Jerry Durso. Who is he? He was the CEO of Intercept Pharmaceuticals. He literally just sold Intercept to Alfasigma. He knows exactly how to package a liver drug for a buyout.
• New CFO (Nov 2024): Greg Weaver. This guy was the CFO at Sirna (sold to Merck) and ILEX (sold to Genzyme).
• Translation: You don't hire a liquidation squad if you plan to run independent trials for the next decade.
3. Valuation is a Joke (The Value Play)
Let’s look at the comps. This is why it’s the best value on the board.
• Madrigal (
$MDGL): Multi-Billion market cap. (Commercial stage, but expensive).
• Viking (
$VKTX): ~
$8B+ market cap.
• Novo also got some company in this space for billions
• Altimmune (
$ALT): ~
$450M -
$550M Market Cap.
It is trading at cash + a handshake. If this gets even half the valuation of its peers, it’s a multi-bagger. The Phase 3 setup is fully aligned with the FDA. The ship is loaded.
4. The Catalyst & The Risk
• The Hype: The stock started heating up at the JPM Healthcare Conference (Jan 2026). Big Pharma is swimming in cash and looking for MASH assets because their patents are expiring.
• The Risk (The Bear Case): Cash. They have ~
$210M (as of late 2025). Phase 3 is expensive.
• Scenario A: They dilute. Stock dips, we cry, then it recovers.
• Scenario B: Partnership (Non-dilutive cash). Stock moons.
• Scenario C: Buyout. We retire.
SUMMARY :
They have the Data (BTD granted), they have the Management (literally hired guys who sell companies), and they have the Market Cap (insanely low compared to peers).
This isn't a pure obesity play anymore; it's the leading MASH play that makes you skinny.
• Ticker:
$ALT
• Catalyst: FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation + Phase 3 start.
• Upside: 3-5x to catch up to peer valuations.
• Risk: Cash burn/Dilution (unless they partner/sell first).
• Prediction: Jerry Durso didn't take this job to work a 9-5. He took it to sign a deal.
And gets a nice bonus when he sells.
COPIED FROM REDDIT ! 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️🥳
