Mar. 15 at 3:44 PM
$MCRB My view on what the new CEO has in his pocket. I think the upcoming SER-155 irEC data will be at least good (65–75% success). A Phase 2 asset in this space is usually around
$300M. Recent reports show Seres manufacturing costs jumped ~86% in Q4. To me, that suggests VOWST demand is accelerating. It also lines up with Nestlé's new data published Jan 5, 2026 in Nature Medicine, showing VOWST doesn’t just prevent infections, it helps repair the gut’s metabolic functions. Because of that, I think the
$125M VOWST milestone payment could arrive late summer or early fall. Discounted today, I’d value milestones at around
$200M. Rest of the assets (platform, pipeline, and manufacturing) are at
$75–100M, and you get a floor BO value near
$575M. Now the upside. If SER-155 data is strong (85–90% scenario), which is possible since the Sept 2024 Phase 1b Cohort 2 results showed 90% of patients remained free of bloodstream infections through Day 100, this could turn into a bidding war.
