Jan. 22 at 8:08 PM
$MBRX live short interest 12.8%, CTB 103.12
OS: 3.08M
Float: 3.04M
Market Cap: ~
$14.6M
• Warrant Stack (Real Dilution, All Still OTM for Now)
– Dec 2025 Armistice warrants: 2,610,823 @
$6.63, registered, 2030 expiry, “customary” anti-dilution. Sits a bit above spot, but directly tied to the recent Armistice recycling cycle (Roth/Maxim).
– Aug 2025 investor warrants: 2,278,235 @
$9.25, registered, 2030 expiry, “customary” anti-dilution; placed with the usual small-cap biotech fund cohort (District 2, Bigger, Armistice, Sabby, Hudson Bay).
– June 2025 Series E: 1,161,104 @
$9.25, registered, 2030 expiry, insiders; also standard anti-dilution only.
You’ve got 6.0M live warrants versus 3.1M OS, roughly 2x the current share count in overhang. The good news: all of the real size is way out of the money vs a
$4–5 handle, so they don’t mechanically cap the tape unless the stock rips into that 6–9 range or terms get “revisited.” The bad news: every future squeeze into those levels is an exit ramp for sophisticated holders who bought into these structures at much lower effective economics.
• Legacy Mega-Strike Warrants (Optics > Economics)
– 2018–2019 vintages (Roth/Oppenheimer era): a few thousand warrants with strikes in the
$2,475–
$6,300 range plus 2019 paper at
$3,937.50. All “customary” anti-dilution, de minimis remaining counts.
These don’t matter for share-count math anymore, but they tell you the story: Moleculin has lived on serial shelf/RDO/ATM flow for years. Any “clean” cap table narrative is fiction.
• ATM & Equity Line Supply
– July 2025 Roth ATM:
$8.2M total, ~
$7.1M remaining, baby-shelf constrained. They’ve already tapped it in late 2025 at sub-
$1 prints; it’s live ammo for any volume pop going forward.
– Historic Oppenheimer ATMs (2020–2021) are terminated, and the old Lincoln Park equity lines are either replaced or expired. The current primary faucet is the Roth ATM on top of the warrant stack.
