Mar. 20 at 12:54 PM
$LXRX Using the lower bound of the following cohorts #'s
- Zynquista for T1D (1M+ cohorts in US),
- Inpefa for HCM (1M+ cohorts in US),
- Inpefa for HF (6M+ cohorts in US),
- Pilavapadin for DPNP (10M+ cohorts in US),
- LX9851 for obesity (3 in 1 in US).
Excluding LX9851 & HF, there are 12M people in the US who could benefit from these 4 drugs, which are either approved or in the final stage of the drug development. US population is about 5% of the world's such that there are roughly more than 240M people worldwide who could benefit from these drugs as well. Taking a deep discount, let's say more than 100M.
The combined peak sales in the US should be easily 3B$/yr. Rest of the world, the prices are much lower but the cohorts are much higher, so let's also assign a WW peak sales of 3B$/yr.
Excluding LX9851 & HF, we arrive at a potential combined peak sales around 6B$, which should support a 2x to 3x BO value on a backdrop of 3x to 5x.
* HF exclusion due to limited runway.
