$HAWK IPO'd at
$26. Trading at
$16. The Street says
$32.
HawkEye 360 has bled roughly 55% off its post-IPO high and now sits below the
$18.86 its Series E investors paid in private rounds earlier this year. Public buyers are getting a better price than the last private round. That doesn't happen often.
The chart first:
S-1 at
$15.45 has held every test, and price is building a tight base above it. RSI is printing a bullish divergence, while Stochastics just crossed up from the bottom quartile.
Levels I'm watching:
• S-1:
$15.45, the floor that's held
• 50/100-day cluster:
$18.02–
$19.82, the first real test
• R-1:
$21.96, the pivot where the Aug breakdown started
• R-2:
$25.54, the Aug high, just under the IPO price
The fundamentals, IMO, don't match the price:
• Q2 revenue up 87% YoY to
$49.8M, backlog at
$292.2M
• BofA upgraded from Neutral to Buy, with a
$23 target (from
$34). Epstein's note called it an "attractive valuation flying below the radar."
• ~
$18M in Middle East SIGINT contract awards announced this morning
• Consensus Strong Buy across 10 analysts (S&P Global): 7 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell
• The average target is
$32.56 (+103.5%). The low is
$23 (+43.75%) and the high is
$41 (+156.25%).
Space and defense sold off as a group. The business didn't.
I'm just sharing my work here. Not financial advice.
