Feb. 11 at 6:33 PM
David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates “substantially more” than the two reductions currently priced in for 2026, arguing markets are wrong to interpret strong jobs data as a reason to pause. He believes Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, could push for additional cuts—even if inflation runs at 4%–5%—by emphasizing productivity and supporting easing even in a strong economy.
Einhorn is positioning accordingly, holding gold and SOFR futures, effectively betting that short-term rates will decline further. Gold, which briefly fell after Warsh’s nomination eased concerns about Fed independence, has rebounded and is up more than 17% this year after surging over 60% in 2025 and more than 120% since 2024.
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