Traderdoggy
Sep 25, 2:43 PM
$FLYW Here's what Morgan Stanley are thinking (post earningss note) fwiw
Organic Flywheel Producing Best-in-Class SMID Fintech Growth That's Still Not Properly Priced; Reiterate Overweight and Raise PT to
$22
FLYW raised FY FXN RLAS growth 300bps to 21-27% despite lower UK visa assumptions, reinforcing that share gains and cross-sell are outweighing macro pressure.
The high end implies ~19% 4Q growth versus ~15% pre-print 2027 consensus, while FLYW has beaten its RLAS high end by ~440bps on average for 6 straight quarters.
The
$1BN revenue and 30% margin framework could be achievable in two years, requiring only ~14% growth off the revised 2026 high end.
Payment ramps are converting faster than expected, pressuring gross margin through mix but generating high-conversion gross profit with little incremental opex.
Raising estimates modestly and our PT to
$22; implies '28 FCF ex. SBC multiple of<14x for ~59% '26-'28 CAGR.
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