Mar. 21 at 6:22 PM
$EONR If peace is finally declared, the world faces a "long-tail" recovery where the Strait could be cleared for initial traffic in two to four weeks, but full economic and technical "normality" will likely take six months or more.
The first month is purely about safety and logistics: clearing sea mines, establishing naval escorts for the 150+ stranded tankers, and convincing insurers to drop the 600% "war-risk" premiums that currently halt trade. However, the physical destruction of infrastructure—including reported strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, Iran's South Pars gas field, and Israel’s Ben Gurion fuel hubs—means that even with open waters, the region cannot simply "flip a switch" to pre-war output.
Because many Gulf oil fields in Kuwait and Iraq were forced to "shut-in" (physically stop production) when their storage tanks topped out, restarting those wells involves a slow, technical ramp-up that experts warn could take half a year to reach 100% capacity again.
