Mar. 18 at 11:33 PM
Diageo (
$DEO) Stock: A Happy Hour Rally or A Silent Irish Exit Value Trap?
1️⃣ SOLVENCY:
$2.3B asset sale +
$1B cash saved/year from the cut. Net Debt/EBITDA dropping to ~3.1x. The "survival floor" is locked.
2️⃣ MANAGEMENT: Sir Dave Lewis (ex-Tesco) is fixing the "Premium Trap." Shifting focus to the
$10-
$20 segment & moving 65% of manual orders to 100% digital. Efficiency = Margin.
3️⃣ MOAT: Guinness growing 10.9%—it’s "social currency" for Gen Z. Guinness 0.0 doubling capacity. They own the sober-curious market.
4️⃣ CATALYSTS: Destocking ends late FY26 + potential
$2B sale of RCB cricket team. Expect a massive organic sales spike once "sell-in" matches "sell-out."
📊 THE MATH:
Price: ~
$77
Conservative DCF:
$112
Upside: 45%+
Don't confuse a "kitchen sink" quarter with a broken moat. Distressed quality is the ultimate asymmetric bet. 🥃🚀
Full 4-Pillar deep dive: https://youtu.be/Gtw-Q5PnlVs
#ValueInvesting #Stocks #Dividends #DEO #Guinness #Trading
