Jan. 15 at 3:26 PM
$CPS It is impossible to guesstimate what the guidance will be before it is released. If one believes in management and the bull thesis, '25 guidance, before the Ford fire was
$2.750B revenue at 8.5% EBITDA margin. On the Q3 call, management reiterated a linear, straight line glide path to the 2030 target of
$4B+ revenue and 15%+ EBITDA margin, which equates to
$250M revenue growth and 1.3% EBITDA margin accretion per year on booked programs at an estimated 15-15.5M NA light vehicle production estimate. That equates to
$3B rev at 9.8% EBITDA margin for '26. As a bonus, if the debt stack can be refi'd from 13% to 9%, it would add another
$27M to EBIT. Most importantly for the PE and PS multiple, IF this is where guidance comes out for 2026 it is proof of concept and MAY allow the modeling and pull forward for the 2030 targets.
