septrading
Oct 2, 9:30 PM
$BMEA I've been keeping GPT-6 Astra "Very High" up to date on all the developments, including BMEA, KURA/Caspian, and the Lilly combination news, etc. It was time to update the model.
First, it hovered around 1.28 all week; it's a significantly different picture now for the warrant conversion/yield. Using the same base case and tiered placebo-adjusted efficacy, we get a drastic reduction in the initial trading ranges compared to the 9/15 model which followed Erdtmann's bullish presentation and confirmation of the Q3 Data.
Now, the base case has gone from 3.35-5.20 (Sept. 15th numbers in red) down to 1.60-2.40 (today's model in green). That assumes, as before, only a 5-5.5 weight loss.
Interestingly, the trading-after ranges perform better once you clear the base-case results. Trying to remain bullish, and the model isn't popping that bubble yet.
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