Mar. 21 at 6:24 PM
$ADAPY
What’s actually left in the company?
Cash (mid-2025): ~
$26M 
Tecelra sale:
$55M upfront + up to
$30M milestones 
Guaranteed cash ≈
$80M total (26M + 55M)Milestones (
$30M)
Share count reality
You mentioned ~265M ADR shares
That’s a reasonable ballpark for dilution-adjusted count.
Base liquidation math
Conservative
$80M / 265M shares ≈
$0.30
Mid-case
~
$95M / 265M ≈
$0.35–
$0.40
Bull case
$110M+ / 265M ≈
$0.40–
$0.50
Burning cash Restructuring heavily
Cutting workforce ~60% Already flagged going concern risk
$0.20 –
$0.40 is the realistic liquidation band
Step 5: If it’s NOT liquidation
Typical outcome:
Short term:
$0.05–
$0.20
Long term: depends entirely on new company
Typical range:
$0.30 –
$0.60 per share
Most realistic range:
0.20 –
$0.50 per share
Probability-weighted view:
Scenario Probability Value
Liquidation Medium-High
$0.20–
$0.40
Buyout Medium
$0.30–
$0.60
Reverse merger Medium
$0.05–
$0.30