May. 12 at 7:49 PM
$ABCL
$ABCL
Stage 1 math What a clean Phase 2 hit in Q3 is actually worth:
Phase 3 Odds of success: 55-65%
Risk-adj peak sales( 60% of half TAM):
$3B × 60% =
$1.8B
Peak multiple 4.5x =
$8.1B
PV @ 12% over ~6yrs ≈
$4.1B
ABCL635 alone: ~
$4-4.5B EV ( 3X from current price)
Other buckets:
Cash + gov't funding: ~
$0.65B
Royalty book (bam residual + others): ~
$0.3-0.4B
Pipeline (575/688/386 + 20 discovery): ~
$0.3-0.5B
Platform (Trianni/Celium): ~
$0.3-0.5B
Non-635 total: ~
$1.6-2.1B
Stage 1 EV: ~
$5.6-6.6B ÷ 305M shares = ~
$18-22/share
= 3.5-4x from
$5.24.
The biggest single re-rating on the entire ABCL635 path is right here at the Q3 readout. Phase 3 approval.
