Aug. 18 at 1:20 PM
$TRI.TSX
$TRI was down again yesterday and is lower this morning, now well off its 2025 highs after a brutal AI-disruption-fear selloff took it from the
$200S to under
$100 earlier this year. The board is genuinely split here — sentiment's sitting almost dead-even bearish/bullish with message volume running hot.
Worth noting: TRI just raised full-year guidance at Q2 earnings (Aug 5), now calling for ~8% total revenue growth and 9.5-10% growth in its core "Big 3" segments. The bull case leans on TRI's proprietary legal/tax/accounting data — decades of it, walled off from generic AI models — as a moat, not a liability. The bear case is straightforward: if agentic AI can eventually replicate that research workflow, the moat erodes.
Here's what my CycleTrade system says on the chart, though — no opinion on the AI debate, just the system.
Backtested since 2016 (
$100K start, 10% pyramided parcels, up to 10 adds), full VEnv1/VEnv2 grid at TRI's 50D ATR% of 4.7%:
VEnv1 alone (1x): 28.2% PnL / 15.4% DD
VEnv1 1x + VEnv2 0x: 42.1% / 12.2%
VEnv1 1x + VEnv2 2x: 85.1% / 10.6%
VEnv1 1x + VEnv2 3x: 156% / 7.2%
VEnv1 1x + VEnv2 4x: 199% / 6.2% ← best of the grid, both PnL and DD and shown in the chart image
Clean pattern: PnL climbs and DD falls in lockstep as the exit band widens, all the way to the edge of what I tested. Chart attached shows the 1x/4x setup on the daily — two completed cycles, current position still open from the pyramided buy cluster this summer.
Not investment advice, just what the backtest shows. The AI-disruption debate is a real one and I'm not weighing in on it either way.
